Will anyone vote? Prospects for turnout in the general election

One of the most notable features of the last two general elections was the low level of turnout. Before 2001 turnout at general elections was always at least 70% (and often far higher). But in 2001 it fell to just 59% and, at 61%, the figure in 2005 was little better. Over 17 million people eligible to vote that year chose not to do so, seven million more than voted for the winning Labour party. Britain found itself almost at the bottom of the turnout league among established European democracies. The failure of large sections of the public to go to the polls has led to considerable concern about the health of Britain’s democracy and stimulated many a suggestion as to how the country’s politicians might be able to reconnect with the electorate

Elections as beauty contests: do the rules matter?

Leaders have become the human face of election campaigns. This has lead to the suggestion that many voters now vote for the party leader they like best rather than the party they prefer. However, people would seem more likely to vote for the leader rather than the party in presidential elections rather than parliamentary ones, and amongst parliamentary elections themselves when a majoritarian rather than proportional electoral system is used. In addition we might expect these propositions to be particularly true if few people have a strong party identification and many people watch a lot of television news. This paper uses the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems project data to assess whether there is any systematic evidence to support these expectations

Rules and practices of political opinion polls

In this post, John Curtice explains the role of the British Polling Council in the context of the forthcoming general election. He details the rules that polling companies agree to abide by when becoming BPC members, and discusses two recent cases that posed questions about who had responsibility for publishing poll details

If the Conservatives are to counter the challenge of UKIP, they need to turn around the economy rather than fret obsessively about Europe

John Curtice looks at the evidence of recent opinion polls to examine the character and sources of support for UKIP, and to consider how the challenge posed by UKIP might best be met. He finds that the party is sapping more support away from the Tories than the other two main parties, and argues that the Tories need to turn around the economy rather than fret obsessively about Europe to respond to the challenge posed by UKIP

How Scotland Voted : Economic Perceptions in the Scottish Independence Referendum

A lot closer than had seemed likely a few months previously; not as close in the end as the final polls had suggested. That probably summarises many people’s reaction when they learnt that 45% had voted Yes, and 55% No in Scotland’s independence referendum. But Scotland did not vote as one. Voters’ propensities to vote Yes or No varied according to their social and economic circumstances. Not least of the reasons is that those circumstances affected their perceptions of the economic consequences of independence

The 2015 election could reignite the debate about electoral reform in Britain

The forthcoming election looks as though it will pose further questions about the continued merits of using the first-past-the-post electoral system, writes John Curtice

With 16 weeks to go until Scotland decides, many votes are still up for grabs

While the Yes side seems to have retained the gains that it made during the winter, it apparently does not have the continued momentum it seemingly still needs if it is to achieve victory. However, when considering those who still have not made up their minds and those who acknowledge they may change their minds come September, the votes of just under half of Scots are still potentially up for grabs. But, nevertheless, John Curtice thinks it will take a Herculean campaign from here on out (or an especially bad one) to change things

Scotland 'One Year On' : the Legacy of the Independence Referendum

This paper analyses the aftermath of the referendum, identifies the features of the referendum that contributed to that aftermath, and considers what the implications might be for Scotland’s political and constitutional future. It focuses on three issues. First, what should we make of the post-referendum proposals for more devolution? Do they seem any more likely than any of their predecessors to provide Scotland with a stable constitutional settlement? Second, what are the implications of the SNP’s electoral success? Has it ensured that sooner than later Scotland will be going to the polls once again to decide whether it should be an independent country? Finally, what should we make of attempts to change the voting rights of Scottish MPs? Is it a sign of growing tension between Scotland and England over what their relationship should be

Will Covid-19 change attitudes towards the welfare state?

Britain’s welfare state has suddenly been presented with a new challenge – to keep the country afloat during the Covid‐19 pandemic. The most immediate pressure is on the health service, whose ability to cope with the numbers needing hospital care is now imposing a constraint on the country’s economic activity. But, after successive years of reining back the scale of welfare provision to those of working age, the government is now also providing – via the social security system – increased levels of support to those who have lost their incomes, as well as subsidising on an unprecedented scale the salaries of those in work

Five minutes with John Curtice: “In over 60 opinion polls, only one has ever seen a majority in favour of Scottish independence”

Strathclyde University’s polling and public opinion expert Professor John Curtice recently spoke at an LSE event on the forthcoming Scottish independence referendum. Democratic Audit’s Sean Kippin took the chance to speak to him. They discussed the prospect of a ‘Yes’ vote, the demographics at play in the election, and an independent Scotland’s party make-up